As the NBA season fast approaches, fans and writers are turning their attention to the same thing: season predictions. Who will win the NBA Finals? Which teams will win their respective conferences? What team will surprise or disappoint the fans?
That also goes for individual awards. Who will win NBA MVP? Who will win Rookie of the Year? In this article, let’s look at one specific award and see which players have the best odds to win the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year.
Jaren Jackson Jr | +600
When Jaren Jackson Jr entered the draft in 2018, he was a consensus top-5 draft prospect. That draft status came mainly from his promise as a defender. At 6’11” and a standing reach of 9’2″, Jackson had tremendous physicality and athleticism. His offensive game had a lot of upside, considering his shooting numbers from outside the restricted area at Michigan State, but he was a plug-and-play defensive force.
Despite that, his career got off to a slow start. In his first four seasons, Jackson dealt with leg injuries and was inconsistent as an offensive due to his struggles at the rim. However, he finally put it all together in a 2022-23 season that saw him, at times, look like the best player on a Grizzlies team that features the troubled Ja Morant. If you want to check NBA Defensive Player of the Year Odds, you are surely going to see Jackson’s name.
Jackson had an offense breakout, shooting at the highest percentage of his career in the restricted area and within 10 feet of the basket. More importantly, he built off a strong 2021-22 season where he led the league in blocks per game and was a defensive stopper. He once again led the league in blocks and put on a show in the playoffs, putting his name on the map for the average fan. The reward was his first-ever Defensive Player of the Year award. Look for him to defend that title this season as the odds-on favorite.
Evan Mobley | +600
Right there with Jackson is Evan Mobley, the seven-footer who helped jumpstart the Cavaliers’ rebuild. Drafted third overall back in 2021, Mobley has thus far been the best player in his class. His 13.7 win shares lead all 2021 draftees. The former USC Trojan entered the draft as arguably the best big man available due to his length and mobility. He nearly won Rookie of the Year in 2021-22 — a favorite in one of the closest races in recent memory.
Mobley entered the league, and fans could immediately see his Defensive Player of the Year upside while averaging 15 points and eight rebounds per game. Last season, Mobley got even better, leading the league in Defensive Win Shares with 4.8 after finishing 11th in his rookie season.
Thanks to Cleveland’s trade for Donovan Mitchell and the emergence of guys like. Mobley and Darius Garland, the Cavaliers are a strong team and among the contenders in the East. He is currently at the top of Defensive Player of the Year odds, so look to Mobley as a serious candidate to win the award for the first time in his career.
Giannis Antetokounmpo | +750
Giannis’ career arc reads like a fairy tale. He wasn’t a top-10 draft pick, yet he turned himself into a player that, if things break right, could be a top-15 player all-time. He emerged as an elite scorer, averaging 31 points per game last season, something few people expected. However, what sets Giannis apart is his defense.
The 2019-20 NBA Defensive Player of the Year, Giannis enters every season as a candidate to be the league’s best defender. He now has Damian Lillard on his team as well, which likely removes some of the scoring load he carries and allows him to expend even more energy as a defender. Giannis is a five-time NBA All-Defensive player, leading the league in Defensive Win Shares once and Defensive Box Plus-Minus twice. He might be at the tail end of his defensive prime, but he still should have a few years of elite defense in the tank. So, consider Giannis as a legitimate contender in Defensive Player of the Year odds.
Bam Adebayo | +900
Of all the players on this list, Bam Adebayo consistently being near the top of Defensive Player of the Year odds has to be the most surprising. Drafted 14th overall in 2017 by the Heat thanks to his freak athleticism, Bam struggled with rotations at Kentucky and lacked size for his position at 6’9″.
However, he was a high-upside guy, and it is hard to argue that he hasn’t reached his peak upside. Among his 2017 draft class peers, only Jayson Tatum and Jarrett Allen have more career Win Shares, while only Tatum and Donovan Mitchell boast a higher Value Over Replacement Player. In terms of positions, Bam has been an All-NBA defender in four of his six seasons, despite his frame, and is a two-time All-Star. Jimmy Butler gets all the praise in Miami for the Heat’s recent postseason success, but without Bam, those teams wouldn’t have had the same success.
He is an underdog in the Defensive Player of the Year odds, but consider Bam as a legitimate candidate if the Heat continue to succeed.
Conclusion: Looking Towards The Season
There are a lot of great defenders in the league this season, many of whom are cogs on championship-contending teams. When voters ultimately choose the Defensive Player of the Year in 2024, it will likely be one of the defenders that helped push their team towards a title.