The No.1 overall pick carries a weight unlike any other selection in sport. Franchises plan around it. Fanbases invest years of hope in it. And history tells us that, more often than not, the result is complicated.
As the Washington Wizards prepare to build around AJ Dybantsa, their 2026 No.1 pick, it is worth looking back at how the previous ten first overall selections have fared. Some have fulfilled their billing. Others have raised the perennial question of what might have been. One changed the league entirely.
1. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (2023)
There was no argument at the time, and there is none now. Wembanyama was the most extraordinary prospect many scouts had seen in a generation, and he has matched that billing in every sense. San Antonio’s lottery win transformed the franchise. It delivered them an NBA Finals appearance and, by most predictions, a dynasty in the making.
2. Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks (2025)
Flagg is only one season into his career, so any ranking carries caveats. What is clear is that he has every attribute needed to become a genuine franchise cornerstone: two-way intensity, basketball intelligence, and the composure of a player several years his senior. If he stays healthy, he looks like a hit.
3. Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves (2020)
When Edwards arrived in Minnesota, there were questions about his shot selection and defensive commitment. Those concerns have long since been answered. He is now the defining piece of a Timberwolves team built to compete. A player who combines elite athleticism with a scorer’s mentality and a genuine will to win.
4. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons (2021)
Cunningham’s trajectory has been a patient one, but the destination looks right. He is the central creative force on a Pistons team that reached the top seed in the Eastern Conference last season. Efficiency will need to improve, but the foundation is solid. Detroit under his leadership could be real challengers next year, and you can bet on their next season with a Betr promo code from GOAL.
5. Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic (2022)
Banchero is a capable scorer and a legitimate first option on a playoff-calibre team. The question is the ceiling. He has not shown the jump-shot consistency, burst, or creation under pressure that the very best forwards require. A good player. Whether a great one remains to be seen.
6. Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers (2016)
Simmons had the physical gifts and instincts to compete at the highest level. He made All-Star teams, earned All-Defensive recognition, and was a legitimate threat as a passer and athlete. But a fundamental inability to shoot, and the psychological complications that grew around it, ultimately defined his career in ways the highlights could not paper over.
7. DeAndre Ayton, Phoenix Suns (2018)
Ayton has been a reliable NBA centre for the better part of a decade. Consistent double-doubles, an NBA Finals appearance, and a move to the Los Angeles Lakers all speak to genuine competence. The difficulty is context. Luka Doncic went two picks later. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander followed at four. Jalen Brunson fell to 33rd. That company makes the pick hard to view favourably.
8. Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks (2024)
Risacher is only two seasons into his career, so a firm verdict would be premature. But the signs have not been encouraging. He fell out of Atlanta’s rotation entirely during their playoff series against the Knicks. The makings of an impact player are not yet visible. Time is still on his side, but it is ticking.
9. Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans (2019)
Williamson was one of the most physically imposing prospects ever to come out of college. The combination of size, power and athleticism genuinely had no precedent. But persistent injury, and questions away from the court, meant what he actually produced bore little resemblance to what the prospect suggested. He remains one of the great what-ifs of his generation.
10. Markelle Fultz, Philadelphia 76ers (2017)
Fultz arrived as a near-certain star. His shooting was regarded as automatic at college level. What followed in the NBA was one of the most baffling declines any top pick has experienced. Injuries wrecked his mechanics almost immediately. He found a modest role eventually, but the gap between expectation and outcome was vast, and it never closed.