RAPHAEL ESPARZA – GLOBAL ODDSMAKER & PROFESSIONAL SPORTS HANDICAPPER AT DOC’S SPORTS – EPISODE 1184

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Email – raphael085@hotmail.com

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Raphael Esparza is a Global Oddsmaker and Professional Sports Handicapper at Doc’s Sports.  He has over 14 years of experience as a sportsbook manager at four of the biggest, most well-known sportsbooks on the Vegas Strip.  Esparza has more than 18 years of sports handicapping experience and has spent the last seven years with Doc’s Sports as The Vegas Sports Informer.  Raphael’s success stems from his power ratings and thousands of trends personally tracked over many years.  He is generally considered to be the best NBA handicapper in the country thanks to a remarkable seven consecutive winning seasons. 

On this episode Mike and Raphael delve into the intricacies of sports betting, particularly within the dynamic landscape of the NBA and college basketball. Esparza addresses the impact of player performance, injuries, and statistical trends on setting betting odds, while also addressing the implications of increased betting accessibility through mobile platforms. We explore the challenges faced by college basketball teams and coaches in an era marked by rapid roster changes due to the transfer portal, and how these shifts affect the continuity and cohesion essential for success. Through Esparza’s extensive experience, we gain valuable perspectives on the evolving nature of sports betting and its intersection with the NBA and college basketball.

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Step behind the Sportsbook curtain as you listen to this episode with Raphael Esparza, Global Oddsmaker and Professional Sports Handicapper at Doc’s Sports.

What We Discuss with Raphael Esparza

• Insights into the intricate world of sports betting and odds setting
• The transformative impact of technology on sports betting, particularly with mobile applications revolutionizing how fans engage with gambling
• The significance of team dynamics and chemistry, especially in college basketball, where roster changes are frequent and impactful
• Understanding player transfers in college basketball cannot be overstated; it fundamentally alters team composition each season
• The evolution of the NBA has led to a pronounced emphasis on three-point shooting, which dramatically influences game outcomes and betting strategies alike
• The ability to accurately set odds in sports betting is heavily reliant on real-time data, particularly regarding player injuries and team performance trends
• The recent influx of international players in the NBA has reshaped the league
• Understanding betting trends, particularly during high-stakes events like March Madness, requires an analysis of team momentum and historical performance against the spread
• In the NBA, late injury announcements heavily influence betting lines and public betting patterns
• The evolving landscape of sports betting has increased competition among sportsbooks, necessitating innovative approaches to attract bettors
• March Madness showcases the unpredictability of college basketball, making it a prime event for both fans and bettors alike

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THANKS, RAPHAEL ESPARZA

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TRANSCRIPT FOR RAPHAEL ESPARZA – GLOBAL ODDSMAKER & PROFESSIONAL SPORTS HANDICAPPER AT DOC’S SPORTS – EPISODE 1184

[00:00:00] Narrator: The Hoop Heads Podcast is brought to you by Head Start Basketball.

[00:00:20] Raphael Esparza: Watch the Joker when he does a no look pass. Run up the court and then watch him hit a three pointer. It’s night and day. He’s more excited that he hit the no look pass than he did the three point shot. So I enjoy that aspect of the NBAI love team basketball.

[00:00:36] Mike Klinzing: Raphael Esparza is a global odds maker and professional sports handicapper at Doc’s Sports.

He has over 14 years of experience as a sports book manager at four of the biggest, most well-known sports books on the Vegas strip. Esparza has more than 18 years of sports handicapping experience and has spent the last seven years with doc sports as the Vegas sports informer. Raphael’s success stems from his power ratings and thousands of trends that he’s personally tracked over many years.

He’s generally considered to be the best NBA handicapper in the country. Thanks to a remarkable seven consecutive winning seasons.

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[00:01:55] Ryan Glenney: Hi, this is Ryan Glenney, men’s basketball associate head coach at Dallas Baptist University, and you’re listening to the Hoop Heads Podcast.

[00:02:07] Mike Klinzing: Coaches, you’ve got a game plan for your team, but do you have one for your money? That’s where Wealth4Coaches comes in. Each week, we’ll deliver simple, no fluff financial tips made just for coaches. Whether you’re getting paid for camps, training sessions, or a full season, Wealth4Coaches helps you track it, save it, and grow it.

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Step behind the sports book curtain as you listen to this episode with Raphael Esparza, global Odds Maker and Professional Sports Handicapper at Doc Sports.

Hello, and welcome to the Hoop Heads Podcast. It’s Mike Klinzing here tonight without my co-host Jason Sunkle. But I am pleased to be joined by Raphael Esparza from Doc’s Sports Service.  Raphael, welcome to the Hoop Heads Pod.

[00:03:07] Raphael Esparza: Thank you for having me. We, we talked yesterday. Excited to do, always excited to talk a little hoops even if it’s NBA college basketball, WNBA. I’m always excited to talk about hoops and I can’t believe Monday tipped off college basketball. So we have another sports that ends and baseball just ended, so I wish more sports would end because now it’s pretty much the heart of my industry right now if college basketball started.

[00:03:30] Mike Klinzing: Absolutely, well, college basketball. So you’ll see my t-shirt here that I’m wearing on Monday. I had the opportunity to go down and play, watch the University of North Carolina play against central Arkansas. So John Shulman, who is a friend of the podcast coaches at Central Arkansas, and he was nice enough when I saw on the schedule that.

Central Arkansas was going to open up with Carolina. It was always been on my bucket list to get down to a North Carolina game. So I asked Shulman, Hey, you think you can get me some tickets? Ended up getting me a couple seats and went down there with my wife and my daughter and then got into the central Arkansas shoot around in the Dean Dome.

Got a little tour of the Carolina locker room facilities from assistant coach Jeff Lebo, longtime Tarheel, and former head coach at Auburn. So had just a, my wife told me I looked left Raphael, like I was a little 10-year-old kid out on the getting out on the court in the Dean Dome and walking through the locker room and everything.

And then of course I had to pick up some gear while I was there. So yeah, great time. College basketball kicking off. Always a fun always a fun time of year for sure. So before we dive into some of the content of the pod, let’s just kind of give people an idea of right now, today, what you’re doing, and then we’ll kind of go and get into your background.

[00:04:45] Raphael Esparza: I work for Doc Sports. I’ve been there for 20 plus years as a writer, content creator, and a handicapper. But I’ve also been in this industry sports betting industry for almost 30 years. In 1998, I started at Caesars Palace one of the Mecca Sports books in, in Vegas. And just worked my way up through there.

Went from Caesar’s to MGM, to MGM, to New York, New York to New York, New York. And I opened up city center. So gradually doing a lot of the same stuff. When I was at Caesar’s I was the guy that put all the stuff in the computer, like, so if you went through a sports book and you saw all the fancy names and point spreads someone had to put all that input.

To create that. So that was normally myself, that, that did that and worked my way up into there. And then that’s how I got into doing odds for certain stuff. So I started doing odds over at Caesars Palace, helping them do first half and halftime. And then my whole management staff from Caesars went all went up to work at M-G-M. M-G-M was building a brand new sports book, and they hired which is a good friend of mine that still works in industry.

They asked him to be a director and he was kindly to ask me to go with him. So I went from CAEs to MGM and then I worked for pretty much MGM properties for almost, almost 14 Super Bowls. Now when I say Super Bowls. Normally companies say, oh, how many years have you, oh, I’ve been in this company years, five years, 10 years, 20 years.

When you work in my industry, you don’t do years. You do super bowls. And Super bowls are years. So how many Super Bowls do you work in, in our industry? So that’s what we count on. because that’s just the mecca of sports gambling is pretty much NFL and NFL breeds our industry. So I worked almost, almost 14 Super Bowls for MGM properties.

So I worked at pretty much all the MGM properties. At one point they would always ask me to fill in, help out Stew odds over there. I transferred from MGM to New York, New York, just that was right across the street. And the reason why they transferred me over there was because I’m going to age myself right now.

Remember the ESPN zone was a, was a hot, hot happening bar, restaurant and stuff like that. So they actually moved me over there because our ES espn zone at, in Las Vegas. At a studio where we would always do interviews, we would host a lot of events there. We used to hold billiards tournaments there because they had a private upstairs party, so arts tournaments there.

We hold a library, so they moved me over there so I could do a lot of TV content. So if someone needed questions about sports gambling, I could just go out of my office and walk 10 feet to ESPN zone. So that’s why they transferred me over there. I stayed there and then the new, the new shining light of city center was being built in Las Vegas and they answer, they asked me to transfer over there and help.

Actually, I actually designed the sports book because I actually helped design the sports book, and I think that’s probably why I got out of corporate life in there because opening up a casino and designing something probably aged me like 20 years. It was very stressful and I always tell people, yeah, it looks good on a resume, but.

That beat me up picking up carpet and TVs and staff and what kind of pencils are people going to use that to do parlay cards and stuff. Like, there was just way too tedious for, from my blood. And so I left and she’s 20, was it 2016? My contract ended up and I was getting so many offers to do, so many different odds that Vegas wouldn’t let me do.

Like, you can’t bet the Oscars in Vegas. You can’t be, can stuff like that offered so many different companies to do different types of betting as I was doing. So I, I decided to work for myself. I, at the time, I was still working for Doc Sports. And then I ventured out to do odds for different companies and now I consult a lot of casinos and global sports books for anything and anything you want to bet on.

Yesterday was a big day for me because we had elections in New York and Virginia, which we were, we were, we did odds on that. I do a lot of entertainment, movie odds who’s going to Die Next in a popular show that’s on Netflix. Stranger Things and New. It starts, I think coming up. I have to had a whole bunch of profits on that.

So that’s more fun than dissecting NFL Odds. I mean, everyone, I’ve been doing this, I can just do football odds in my sleep doing the research for movies and political and stuff like that. That’s when it takes time because you do a lot of reading, a lot of research and try to figure out what’s the public going to do?

What’s the public going to bet on? It’s almost betting on central Arkansas versus North Carolina. Okay, you can’t make the number so high, but how can you make it more competitive where you’re going to get central Arkansas money coming in? So it’s almost looking at that way then compared to North Carolina and Duke, I mean, you have so much information on those two popular teams, but when you have a a, a low level team, no disrespect to Central Arkansas, but when you have that kind of talent, talent versus non talent, it’s a lot of research you want to do betting odds, props and stuff like that.

So I loved the research part of my job more than anything.

[00:09:52] Mike Klinzing: How’d you get into it for the first time? What, what attracted you to it and what was your first job and how’d you get, how’d you get there?

[00:10:01] Raphael Esparza: Legally? Illegally is, are two different questions. Back in the Midwest, I can say I dabbled into taking my brother’s action taking stuff like that.

I got into it really early because I couldn’t, I had to stop playing high school sports for medical reasons. I was always fascinated with a number point of view and I always wanted to be around sports. I knew I couldn’t play anymore when a doc, I couldn’t play anymore. I, but I still wanted to be around and I didn’t want to be a head coach.

I didn’t want to be something like that. I was always fascinated. I remember opening up the Chicago Sun Times when I lived in Chicago land area and the back page of the sports page always had the point spreads on it the Sheridan Sport for every day, every Sunday and stuff like that for football.

And I was always fascinated with that. So when I was living in the, the Midwest area, my parents actually moved to Vegas my senior year in high school. So I would always go, of course, always go to Vegas to visit them during the holidays. And I met all, all the people at Caesars Palace. because that’s where I used to watch the Super Bowl.

I used to go to Vegas every Super Bowl and visit my folks and then go to Caesars Palace and watch the Super Bowl and play bets. And I just got to know all. All the employees then. So then when I actually moved to Vegas, I was actually working for another company, not a gaming company. And it was during the holidays and I remember going there to watch college basketball after the holidays.

I was in the sports book and just watching games and two managers that used a rich ary who works at Circa right now. And Vinny Marlo, who actually works for a, a gaming company. They came up and sat next to me like, Raphael, what are you doing here? There’s, it’s not Super Bowl and stuff like that.

I’m like I had a rough holiday weekend and stuff like that. I just wanted to sit back and join some college basketball and not be bothered and like, all, why don’t you come work for us? You’re very smart guy. You know what you’re doing and stuff like that. I’m like, I don’t know. So they actually hired me as a ticket rider.

One of those guys that you go up to window. Let me have $20 on the horse, number four and horse racing, or $20, gimme North Carolina to win it all at college basketball. The guy that punched out the tickets my first day, supposed to be a ticket writer my first day. Feds came in and the gaming control board and arrested a whole bunch of people that were betting outside their window.

They were doing a lot of dirty stuff. And so I remember my first day that they told me, Hey, can you go in this guy’s office revealing with some stuff right now? We’ll get with you when we can. And they came in and like hey Rael, do you know who the working computer and stuff like that? I’m like, yeah.

They’re like here, come follow me. So I never wrote a ticket. I was the ad, I was the sports admin. My day one job was putting information stuff in the computers, which normal people would tell me. That’s like a two, three year wait to be a ticket writer and then go into the position that was I was in.

So, but I got there, the, the, I guess the worst time for some people, but the best time for myself. And I just worked my way up. And I tell people, if you want to work your way up in Vegas casinos, or I guess in any casino or pretty much any, maybe any profession. For me, I was 22, 23 at the time, not married, not dating any, anybody.

A significant, hadn’t had no kids. So I would work any hour they told me, Hey, I would, I would be the closing guy. Hawaii halftime, Hawaii football, halftime. They have a lu out. That game doesn’t end until like one, two in the morning. I would stay there, make sure the game ended, make sure everything got posted, make sure everything is closed, but have to come back for a NFL Sunday, be back there at six because I, I do, I wasn’t like, married like a lot of people in my, in the field or had kids and stuff like that.

So I moved up the ranks really quickly because I was willing to come in at any hour. Didn’t matter. Didn’t have any, I, like I said, no kids not married at the time. So I got moved up quickly because of that. And they were teaching me a lot of stuff quickly the ins and outs of inside of a casino. So that’s how it pretty much moved up.

And then it, it all worked for me. I worked, like I said, I worked with some of the brilliant minds in our industry that’s still working today. There’s a couple guys that are in the sports betting Hall of Fame. I worked under that taught me so much stuff. So all my success, I can’t say I did it by myself.

I learned from probably some of the best, and I still call them and they call me all the time, Hey, what are you hearing about this game? I’ll call them, Hey, what are you hearing about this game? What do you see? What’s coming through the bet window on this one? And stuff like that. So we all communicate and I think that’s what helps me do my job.

It helps me at doc sports. It helps me be a better a presenter of our industry. And it helps me. If people call me for either media or papers or podcasts or stuff like that, I can say, Hey, you know what I heard from X, Y, and Z that they found out yesterday that of more actions coming in on this than that, and stuff like that.

And not getting it from the, from the inside source, not getting it from, oh, I heard I heard on the, I heard on social media that, that the books got this. Well, no, halftime. That’s not true.

[00:14:48] Mike Klinzing: Earlier that you really loved the research part of it. And obviously now having been a veteran of the industry and having been in this profession for a long time, as you just detailed, how long did it take you to start to feel like you had a handle on some of the different sports, and obviously specifically to basketball in terms of being able to accurately look at the odds, figure out some of the things that you’re talking about in terms of which team’s the public going to like, how do you set the odds so that it’s balanced?

Just tell me about your research process earlier in your career and what you really liked about digging into those numbers. Well,

[00:15:26] Raphael Esparza: when I worked in casinos, I mean, you would always want to hire someone that’s, we would call them, like for great example, when I was in, in the casino, that’s when NASCAR was at its peak.

And remember when NASCAR was at its peak more so some states wanted two races, not just one race interstate. So we were getting so much heavy action on NASCAR, head-to-head matchups, and we would do so many different things. What an odd ra race, car win, or even number win. We were trying to do as much betting stuff on nascar, so we actually had to hire someone who, I don’t want to say he was a NASCAR expert, but a guy that knew ins and outs on the NASCAR betting aspects.

I was always, so when I was Inca seniors, I would always surround myself with someone who is more sharper than me or that would do the research that sometimes I just didn’t have enough time being in. And that’s the same thing I do now. Like, I have so many friends that I, that are under the college basketball researchers or handicappers or stuff like that.

You just, it’s constant communication. It’s constant reading. I tell people I hire, hire interns all the time and they think they’re just going to come into my office and watch TV all day long, which I have a lot of TVs in in my office. And they’re mostly on that. That is true. You can probably watch it, but you better get your stuff done.

If I say, Hey, can you find me some research? On this politician or find me some research on this wrestling event because I do a lot of stuff for wwe. E can you find me this for hot dog eating contest? I, If I give you something, yes, you can do whatever you want, watch tv, but I better have what I need and it’s just a lot of research and a lot of note taking.

I mean, I’m old school, I’m still yellow, paper and pencil. When there you go. When I’m doing a, a res, when I’m doing research and notes and stuff like that. So that’s why I tell like, people who help me, interns and stuff like that. So it’s just constant, constant. That’s why like my wife’s a big reader.

My dad’s a big reader and like, oh, you need to read this book. I’m like, I do so much reading throughout the day. Yeah, granted it’s on the internet or, or, or a magazine or, or something like that, or text messages. I mean, I’m constantly reading. The last thing I want to do when I’m trying to go to bed is read a book.

[00:17:34] Mike Klinzing: That’s funny and probably very, very true. Talk to me a little bit about how. The industry has changed since the dawn of this new era of people being able to bet right from their mobile phone, people not being limited, to have to go to Las Vegas, to have to go to Atlantic City to be able to have gambling be legalized.

Not in every place, but obviously in very many places across the United States. How has that changed the industry from your perspective and just how you do your day-to-day work? Has it changed much at all? Other than the fact that it’s just exploded as an industry?

[00:18:12] Raphael Esparza: It hasn’t really changed to what I do now.

If I was still in Vegas, in the heart of the sports books and stuff like that, yes, that’s changed. because more people are, less people are going there, and even if you lived in Vegas, they want you to sign up and with your phone app. So what’s the point? Like I love people like, oh. I have to go to va, I have to go to Caesar to cash my ticket.

I’m like, really? Why don’t you just bet on your phone? I mean, that’s like, I’m like the kids now. That’s like, so 1990, your phone where you go into the, the, the book itself. But if I was working in the heart of the sports books, yes, my life would probably be so much different right now. But for what I do for a living at Docs and being a, a global oz maker for a lot of certain industries and stuff like that, I think my industry has probably peaked.

because now everyone’s trying to outdo profits. So what can you do that, that Caesars ain’t doing? What can you do that be MGMs not doing? What can you do that’s fano not doing? So I get more pressure like, okay, wow, I have to up my game because CAEs doesn’t have this, but if I put this out maybe at MGM or use it or maybe a global book will use it.

So for me, I think my job has probably got more tougher just because I have to do a lot, think outside the box and how I can present something different and no one else. Bet on. And so for, I think for me it’s a little bit more challenging, but if I was still in the heart of, of Vegas sports, which I get offered all the time, Hey, why don’t you come back and you run this book and you run this book and stuff like that.

I’m like, you couldn’t pay me enough to work in the Vegas casinos. Right. Because it’s, it’s not the same industry as I went to. I mean, I loved watching all the lines of people just waiting a line to place their bed and peeling up parlay cards and stuff like that, that that’s, that’s not, that’s non-existent anymore.

Vegas, I heard last year’s Super Bowl. All my friends who still worked, they said it was a Deadest Super Bowl. They ever worked. They said there was no lines. Yep. You, you were busy, but not Super Bowl busy. I, when I was working for Aria and MGM and New York, New York Super Bowl, I would get a hotel room and I would go there from Friday and not see my wife until Monday.

Because you were just constantly. All the time because that was the only way to place a bet was to actually physically go to a sports book. But now I heard that they’re, they’re dead during March Madness and Super Bowl.

[00:20:29] Mike Klinzing: Everybody’s, everybody’s right there on their phone. Right. That’s what it ultimately comes down to is Yep.

Like you said, people can make those bets on, on their phone. So you mentioned that trying to come up with something unique that maybe some of the bigger sports books don’t have. Can you give us an example of something that you might have come up with or that you might, that you’re thinking about that hey, could be an angle that could, could allow you to attract some attention away from some of those bigger sports books?

[00:20:57] Raphael Esparza: Well, when I was in Vegas, I always wanted to do Oscar odds just because when the Oscars are going football’s over with. So now you have a big empty sports book on a Sunday when a normal NFL Sundays jam packed. And I always say, Hey, why don’t you, why don’t we let. Put odds on every category for the Oscars and have an Oscar party in a sports book, have everyone dress up.

Food and beverage will make a killing. You can place your bets. Who’s going to win best picture or stuff like that. I mean, I, this is something that’s make the sports book shine and think outside the box. And game of control board would always say, no, we can’t do that. People know the ba know the results already.

I’m like, but yeah, we, you could put like just $25 max bets. So if someone knows, ooh, what they’re going to win $25? Ooh, they’re going to spend $50 in beer and food. I’m like, this is just for customer appreciation, customer service, and get them inside the casino. And it, it, that’s the probably the biggest headache.

That’s one of the reasons why I left, because the gaming control boards in mo most states, the gaming control boards are always, no, no, no. We can’t do that. We can’t. Yes you can. You they choose not to do it. because there’s always. So for instance, if, if I did the Oscar odds and let’s say it’s $25 max bets, but we had a guy just lost a million dollars playing BA rap and now he wants to come to the Oscar party and he wants to bet Best movie and he wants to bet a million dollars because he just lost it.

He’s trying to get his money back and I tell him, sorry, you can have $25 Max bet. I can guarantee you the president of the casino is going to call on me and say, Hey, you know what? Let him bet a million dollars and now I’m stuck in the hole because this guy lost a million dollars in back. Sometimes sports books have to set their limits and say, you know what?

It is what it is. And I think that’s why sports books getting trouble. Now with these profits, with players betting and all that, if you put a certain dollar amount limit, doesn’t matter who you are, this is the number you wouldn’t have. What we’re having a lot of these issues right now, but some guy who just lost $10 million on week nine NFL and wants to bet a a $2 million bet on a.

$500 picking prop at the casino’s going to say, oh, you know what? We have to give it. This guy lost all this money last. No max, I don’t care who you, that’s when you start getting in trouble. But, but it’s never going to go like that. That’s where a lot of my business goes offshore, global Ireland, England stuff like that.

Because these books don’t care about what’s going on dirty. They just, they care about those guys who just lost millions of dollars and now he wants to bid a million dollars on a, on a low max bet on a kicking prop and they’re going to give it to him because all they care about what he’s putting through the window 365 days a year.

[00:23:41] Mike Klinzing: Yeah, that makes sense. I mean, definitely a challenge when you start talking about that, when, let, let’s talk about the, let’s talk about the current situation that recently arose in the NBA and I guess there’s two separate. I that have come up. So first you have the Terry Rossier prop bet where he tips off some of his friends that he’s going to pull himself out of the game.

Those guys make some bets, and then supposedly they’re going back to the house to count the money after that’s over. So tell me a little bit about, just, first of all, how do the casinos identify that action? What’s the process that they think that they go through, that they can immediately flag that and say, Hey, there’s something going on here, and then just gimme your opinion about what, what can the leagues do to try to ensure that those types of things don’t happen other than continuously educating their players about how they should and shouldn’t conduct themselves?

[00:24:46] Raphael Esparza: Education shouldn’t be the reason.  I one thing I do like what UFC is doing now, and I think we’re going to see that now just because of the road here in the Porter with the feds getting involved, I think the feds are going to get involved on everything. So now if you get busted, you’re not going to get a slap on the wrist, you’re not going to get fined.

You’re going to go to federal prison, you’re not going to cook county jail for 24 hours. You’ll be going to federal prison. I think that’s going to be the biggest key right now. So if you, so are you going to risk it for telling your buddy, Hey, it been a thousand dollars. I’m going to miss a free throw then. So you can do federal prison from eight to 10 years or whatever that max sentenced, and I think there probably will get the max sentenced.

I think probably the first 10 people, just because they want to set the example. I think that’s why the Feds got involved with the NBA, so they can set the. That example example on ro. And so I think they’re going to use him for that example. So when you’re educating, they can say, Hey, you know what? Look at Ro.

You put a picture of him at federal prison, he’s there right now. So if you want to risk your $500, tell your buddy to bet that $500 twice to win a thousand dollars, you’re going to risk federal prison. Go for it. I mean, that’s your stupidity. So I think that’s probably the biggest thing that’s probably going to be positive coming out of here.

And I tell people, the victims of all this stuff are the sports books. We’re the ones that are catching all this. We’re the ones that’s notifying the feds that, Hey, you know what, there’s a betting anatomy here. We caught the U ffc one, we caught the Terry er, we’re the ones that called the league. It wasn’t anybody else.

We’re the ones that, Hey, you know what? This game has been flagged. We saw multiple bets being bet in Mississippi and in New and in Louisiana for the Terry year that we’re playing the pelicans. At the time, we’re the ones that caught it, but we’re the ones that’s getting our name dragged in the mud for the bets pleading, being placed in.

But if it wasn’t for us, it would, this would’ve never been caught. That’s why I don’t like these congressmen or these people on social media say, oh, we should ban player profits and stuff like that. No, because if you ban them, where they going to go? They’re going to go to the bookie at Applebee’s or the, or they’re going to go offshore and bet them and no one’s going to catch it.

So why would you arrest a police who’s actually looking for these betting anomalies or ban them and then they’re going to bet with a bookie at Applebee’s or their, or their neighborhood bar, or they’re going to go offshore and no one’s tracking it.

[00:27:11] Mike Klinzing: Yeah. I mean, that makes sense from a standpoint, right, of when you at least bring it above board and as you said, to be able to set that initial punishment of like, Hey, we’re going to make an example of the first couple guys that get caught.

I know I’ve heard, forget what podcast I was listening to, but I heard a couple guys talking about that, that just the federal government. The league wants to set a precedent of, Hey, we’re not going to tolerate this. And as you said, if that results in federal prison time, it’s definitely going to make guys look both ways before they think about doing anything.

 anything at all that, that is similar to that. What, what’s your thought on, I’ve heard, I’ve heard people talk about this too, where there’s, there’s the window between when a team, let’s say an NBA team has a shoot around during the day, and then they have to put the injury report out. And there’s this time in between where maybe a player’s been day to day, or they’re questionable.

No one knows for sure if they’re going to play, but then the player in that whatever hour or two window says to his buddy, Hey, man, I don’t, I don’t think I’m going to play tonight. And maybe it’s not even a, a, a nefarious thing where he is trying to give the guy a tip about gambling, but he’s just talking to somebody and then that somebody comes and.

Takes it and runs and goes and gives that information to, to somebody else. What are the scenarios there in terms of just thinking about how does somebody in the industry think about that and is there a way for that to be police or is that just something that’s human nature that we all just have to live with as, as part of the system here?

[00:28:42] Raphael Esparza: Human nature. Remember back in the day, like probably the late eighties, early nineties, we didn’t have computers and cell phones. We used to get our injury reports from calling the newspapers and stuff like that. Hey, what are you hearing? Hey, were you on the sideline at practice? What did you see?

There was no internet. There was no cell phones and stuff like that. You don’t think games were being fixed back in the eighties and nineties? Right now it’s just everyone has a camera. Everyone has a thumbprint on social media. So yes, it’s coming out there, but this has been happening for decades, just like I said, with the UFC that happened this week.

You don’t think boxers back in the sixties and seventies and eighties were being asked to fix fights? Shoot, that’s the opening scene from Dar, the comic book where his dad die, that he got his the mafia told him to fix a fight and killed him. I mean, I think the reason why it’s blown up as much because we’re in a 365 day news cycle.

Back in the day, we didn’t have 365. We didn’t have social media. We didn’t have all this. I mean, I’ve been telling people this is, this is Europe’s daily life. There’s been so many soccer fixed matches. Tennis has the most fixed matches that anybody, not ev there’s nothing even close, and tennis and soccer and rugby and all those people.

But, but here, it’s, it’s happening in the Almighty United States and the, the world has to stop because someone threw a fight at U ffc or, or something, or someone got caught playing poker. I mean, I used to, I used to hear a story. I worked in a casino. I used to hear stories with sweets that would’ve poker games in a suite in a casino.

Why wouldn’t you just go downstairs and play poker in their room? But like, but they made a, I mean, of course they were cheating, of course they were cheating in poker. But like everyone keeps on asking me what’s the difference between legalized poker game in my garage or, and stuff like that.

I’m like, I tell people if you have to pay a doorman and if you have to pay a cocktail race and pay a poker dealer, then you have a casino in your, in your garage. Now, if you’re just playing with your buddies and you’re the dealer and they’re getting their own beer in the security system, is the garage door opener going up and down?

No, that’s not a casino. But I’ve, I’ve known many dealers that that are poker dealers in Vegas that get hired to go to California. Hey, can you deal my game? We’ll pay you X, Y, and Z. They just want a bias dealer. They don’t want, Hey, this is my neighbor, he’s going to deal today. No, they just want someone, a professional dealer, or they’ll hire cocktail wages.

I’ve heard cocktail wheels. Oh, I got invited to be a cocktail wages that this guy’s blackjack during him or something in his garage. Now you are casino. Now you’re a casino if you’re hiring people. That’s the difference.

[00:31:24] Mike Klinzing: Help me to understand in the other arm of this latest NBA gambling issue, the illegal poker games help me understand the technology that was being used to allow the games to be rigged. So when the, the, the high rolling guys are bring, coming in with their money and, and being taken and being attracted by whether it was Chauncey Billups, or whether it was Damon Jones or whoever it may be, that that was kind of helping to bring these bring these guys in.

Talk to me about some of the tech, the x-ray technology on the, the table and the, the, the ink on the cards and the, the glasses and all that stuff. What can you, what, what kind of like, can you shed on that For me to help, help me and help people who are listening to kind of understand that piece of it.

[00:32:13] Raphael Esparza: What the biggest reality TV watcher add off, if they ever made a reality show about Vegas surveillance cameras, like the people who sit there and watch the cameras all day long would watch that. because I’ve been in the surveillance rooms plenty, plenty of times when I worked in Vegas. And it was fascinating and that’s probably where I learned most of like the contact lenses that the guys were wearing that could read their special cars that they, and the special table that they had and stuff like that.

So yeah, it contact lenses, glasses, marked cards that they were using. I mean, I read the indictment. It’s, to me it sounded like they were just using Porter’s name to hit him to bring in some of his high class or not for bill’s high class friends up there. Just some names Kevin Garnett’s name’s been mentioned, Tyrone Lu’s name’s been mentioned, other names stuff like that.

I don’t know how how close that is on that one, but for me that’s what it sounds like. But the scientific stuff that they had to, the cocktail waitress having something on her that she, that she was able to see the, the cards and stuff like that. That’s way, that’s, that’s a movie that, that George Clooney is probably going to be involved in probably in the next three to four years on that.

So I’m excited to watch that movie because I always tell people, I think a lot of the reason why the poker thing got such a big thing, because when you have the word mafia involved in any kind of criminal thing you did, that’s another story. And when they, when I, when I watched that press conference twice.

Not only did they use the word mafia a lot, they used the mafia names. They didn’t say, oh, we just, Joe Schmos mafia, right. That runs eighth Street, was it? No, they mentioned not one, but two mafia families. Now you’re in, now you’re in trouble. Now you’re probably talking about, okay, if you are going to federal prison, Philip, you might want to sleep with the one eye open.

Because if you had not one, but two mafia families mention on that, that’s something you don’t want to be involved. I mean, I lived in the Midwest in the Chicagoland area and I I was around a lot of that with friends of mine and stuff like that. You don’t want to be involved on a negative side of it, maybe on a positive side, but you don’t want to be in a negative side.

So I think that had a lot to, I think that probably peaked the storyline if he say, oh, Porter guy or, or Phillips got busted for a illegal poker game in his hotel room. Ooh, that’s no big deal. I mean, NBA players played poker and the plates and shoot, I used to watch Jordan tons of money at the golf course when he, we would hold his whole tournaments.

In Vegas like that, that’s nothing. But when you had the mafia involved when it, that’s a, I think that’s the reason why I think that hit a lot of peaks.

[00:34:50] Mike Klinzing: Yeah. The mafia and the technology were the two things that jumped out at me. When you start looking at it and you say, yeah, this is more than just a little poker game that they’re throwing together and trying to take some people’s money.

It, it seemed like it was a fairly sophisticated  scheme that they had, that they had running, that they were that they were, they were trying to put together. Alright. Let’s talk about setting the odds for, let’s start with the NBA setting, the odds for an NBA game. What are some of the factors that you look at when you’re trying to set the odds or when a sports book tries to set the odds for a particular game, what, what are some of the key things, key factors that you want to take into account and look at when you’re trying to put that together?

[00:35:33] Raphael Esparza: I think a lot of people, especially odds make friends of, of mine and stuff like that. I think they look probably. NBA has to be looked through at totally different. Now, these days because of the injuries, the late injuries, it’s almost like, okay, when you put your first opening number that you are like, tomorrow’s games will be, is tomorrow’s games up already?

Let’s see. Hold on. I can tell you right now, I know there’s only one NHL. Oh no, there’s only one NBA game tomorrow. Geez. Oh, they don’t want to touch Thursday night football. That’s why. So tomorrow’s number’s out already. It’s Clippers Phoenix. When you open up that night, you right there. You’re already just looking for two-way action.

Okay? You want, okay, if someone cuts the Phoenix sun, you’re already, okay. I need some clipper action. You’re try not balance your books now, now, anywhere between the morning shoot around. Usually we find out that people are not playing three, four o’clock Eastern standard time. So now you have to adjust what the betters did way before.

They released who’s playing and who’s not playing. So now you pretty much have two numbers in your head. Okay, we’re heavy on the clippers from the morning till three. Now we’re really heavy because everyone jumped on them because booker’s not playing for Phoenix. Now we’re trying to chase action for three hours before the game tips off.

So NB a’s kind of tricky. Now these days you really have to try to do your research. If, for instance, example for the Lakers, they’re playing today. No, Luca, back to back games. We kinda knew that the Lakers were probably going to rest. No Austin re and we kind of knew that was happening. So we had a feeling already.

Now if you would’ve played then we might be backtracking a little bit, but we already had a gut feeling that he wasn’t. So not only are you gambling, I’m placing your badge. We’re actually gambling and trying to always so and so going to play. We’re not going to probably find out till three o’clock, four o’clock.

So we’re actually gambling on our numbers now. NBAI think is really probably the trickiest for right now with injuries and who’s playing? I’ve been telling people once LeBron leaves and once Kawhi Leonard and all these older, Kevin Durant, all that, I think load management is probably going to take a little bit of backseat.

I don’t see Weby saying, Hey, I need a load management. because I played last night. I don’t see these younger, younger kids like, like, I mean, of course an an man has a bad, he’s got hamstring, her hamstring, her ankle. Right now that’s a significant injury. But I’ve never heard him say, you know what? I played last night.

I’m tired. I, I can’t go. I think once these older players hang it up, I don’t, I don’t think we’re going to see or hear that much about low management because these kids are playing down in the league. Were probably the same kids. I can’t believe I got tickets to go watch LeBron play or, or Durant play.

And they’re not playing because of load management. So these kids probably were those kids in the, in the stands, waiting to see their favorite player to, and he’s not playing because on load management. So I think that’s going to flip flop. Once these older people hang their jerseys up.

[00:38:27] Mike Klinzing: Yeah, that’s an interesting perspective that I hadn’t really considered or thought of when you, you start talking about just this generation is obviously the first one where load management has become a factor.

I know that Michael Jordan was on his little segment on NBC talking about just the fact that he didn’t believe in load management, right? He played at, at multiple seasons where he played all 82 games. And just, again, it was a different, a different era. And maybe we’re heading back to the era where guys are out on the floor a lot more when this generation of players, as you said, this older generation moves on.

It’ll be interesting to see if that trend ends up going away and it gets back to maybe more how it was where unless you had a major injury, you weren’t just sitting out. because you needed, you needed rest. And it is, it is interesting to think about how the game has changed. One of the arguments that I hear kind of thrown around out there is just the way that the game of basketball has changed, that the defense is.

Far more intense and teams have to cover so much more of the floor because of the amount of three pointers that are being shot. And the a term that you hear a lot, Raphael, is the, is is the, the variance, right of the three point shot that a team can, if a team’s going to put up 50 threes in a game, well one game, maybe there’s going to make 25 of them and they’re probably going to win.

And then the next game they could get the exact same shot pro profile and only make 12 and all of a sudden they’re going to lose. And they basically played the same type of game. It’s just a matter of did those shots go in. And there’s just a lot more variance in that than there was in old school basketball where you were more trying to work and get the ball as close to the basket and shoot as many layups as you could.

So how have you seen that, has that trend of, of just the three point shot? How has that affected sort of what you do and how you look at games?

[00:40:17] Raphael Esparza: It’s affected the total. I mean, we’ve seen more two forties and two 40 fives for the betting total just because of that. But I tell people, you live by the three, you die by the three AKA, the Boston Celtics last year it went, they won their blowout games because they shot 36% or higher in three points.

They got blown up because they didn’t shoot that percentage, and they still jacked up 50 plus three pointers. So it’s all about hit, hit or miss, I think. I mean, there’s still players like Rozen for the Kings that the king of the two point shots. I mean, there’s still players that are out there.

There’s still teams that are out there. The Chicago Bulls. Yes. They’re they’ve only had one loss. So the surprising Chicago Bulls in the Eastern Conference, they don’t really shoot that much. Threes out there, they go to the paint a lot. They go to, they shoot a lot of free throws. Same thing with Denver.

The Denver Nuggets, the Joker. Yeah, he does shoot threes. His main brother is down below. I think we, same thing. I think when he gets bigger and more mature, he is going to, yeah, he could shoot the three, but he’s going to realize no one can guard me down below. Just like, I don’t think’s going to guard him tonight.

Ooh, yeah. Had 29 plus points, but last game he ain’t have to do that. Yes. Gimme a break. But I just think we’re going to see some of these teams go, go back into, and I think once Steph Curry and these guys that created these long shots yes. Kids coming in there and making at that, but they’re not going to make it.

The success rate we’ve seen. I don’t see anybody coming out of college or anything that’s that’s kind of shooting style like step curry. I think. I think once he goes, I think we’re, we’re going to go back to some kind of normalcy. because everyone wants to see if they can shoot from the logo. I mean, but he’s the only one really.

I mean, Trey Young, but he, he can’t stay healthy right now and he’s probably not going to be a hawk anytime.

[00:42:07] Mike Klinzing: That’s a one of one, let’s put it that way there. There’s never been anybody like him. Yes. And it’s hard to imagine that there’s going to be somebody that’s going to be able to duplicate that. Clearly.

The best shooter in the history of the game when you just factor in the types of shots that he takes and the kind of movement that he takes those shots off of. There’s been nobody that even, even comes close to what Steph Curry has, has been able to do for the game in that respect. How do you think about new guys coming in when a new rookie class comes in and I’m thinking about the prop, that side of it, and you don’t really have a track record of what this guy’s going to be like early in his career.

You’re trying to get a feel for those players. How does that impact again, some of those props with a guy like Cooper Flagg who comes in and everybody expects him to be great right away. So how do you set the line early on, on his, over, under for points? What’s that? What’s that process look like in terms of trying to figure that out?

[00:43:01] Raphael Esparza: His first bad games was, was, was heavenly probably for sports books. because he was not putting up big numbers. And I think the same thing with that. I think there’s only a small handful of rookies that are going to get you that number. In no disrespect to Cooper, he’s probably going to be a really good player once he gets a point guard when you have him bringing up the ball up the court.

I know. I mean, that’s not his style. I mean, once Irv, once Kyrie or Kyrie comes back, I think we’re going to see the Cooper flag that we want to see. But yeah, these rookies coming in, it’s, it’s a little bit charred. We have to like, maybe dip our toes a little bit, wait for a couple weeks before we get to see what the betting public’s going to do right away.

So maybe set set low limits on them just because we have really no bread and butter. We have college numbers, but it’s not totally different. And we don’t even have preseason numbers because they’re not playing the full 20 plus minutes in a preseason. So for rookies like that. I’m not saying Cooper was a bad rookie coming in, but he wasn’t a weby, he wasn’t a LeBron.

Those guys were coming in, we knew who they were, especially Weby who had overseas experience. Having someone born come in is so much easier to do props than it is for a college kid coming in. And a rookie, especially if these guys like these women being all these other ones who’ve played in the Olympics or played in the their, their type of tournaments, they, that’s pretty much almost pro experience that you’re having.

So it’s so much easier to do it that way than having with some rookie company from college.

[00:44:27] Mike Klinzing: Which is funny because I bet if you go back 15 years ago, it, it feels like it might’ve been the opposite where guys that stayed in college yes. For three or four years that they had a track record and there was a lot less information about European basketball.

And so a lot of those guys, it used to be before, right. You would see these guys that very rarely would you have a foreign player drafted in the top 10 of the NBA draft. If you go back 15 or 20 years ago, it, it really never happened. And so the guys that did, you were like, well, who, I mean, what information do we have on any of these guys?

How do we know anything? Conversely, you had college guys who, everybody stayed through their junior year, so you watched him for three years in college. You had a pretty good handle on the fact that, hey, this guy who’s been in the college basketball for three or four years, he’s going to come in and we know right off the gate he’s going to be, we knew Tim Duncan was going to be a really productive NBA player when he comes into the league after playing four years of Wake Wake Forest.

Right? But now, right now you have these guys that play one year, they’re 19 years old, they’re coming into a man’s league. I I mean, you have to almost throw your hands up and be like, I mean, yeah, we, we think these guys are going to have potential long term, but as far as the top 10 guy being productive, who knows if he’s going to be.

A rookie of the year type of player, or is he a guy who’s going to play sparingly as a first year player and maybe isn’t going to develop until his third, fourth, fifth year, or maybe never develop because we’re drafting these guys so young.

[00:45:56] Raphael Esparza: Yeah. And I think the NBA’s in a kind of a pickle right now. because once LeBron and Staff and Durant and Kauai all go, who’s going to be that face of the league?

And if you had to choose right now, it’s a non-American, that will be the face of the league. It could be either. We absolutely, it could be Luca, even SGAs from Canada. He’s not full blown America, sir. I think that’s why, I mean, they will love the Antman to the Anthony Edwards explode and maybe win a, a chip over in Minnesota.

So maybe he, they can pass the torch to him. But I don’t think Luca would be it, just because there’s a guy that can’t play defense. I don’t care how much weight you lost. And I think the alien, the wI mean, it just, I, I tell people it’s like almost watching Tani play basketball because he’s doing stuff that you never thought.

You’re doing. And then I read an article, was it yesterday and all that, that he’s lying about his height. Like he’s actually really taller, he’s ashamed about how tall he keeps on getting and stuff like that. So this guy’s probably seven 10. We don’t really know what he is out there. But yeah, I think the NBA’s kind of in a pickle, because I’m not saying they don’t want Weby or Luca or SGA, but all that.

But when you have a, a, an American sport and such a high peak now globally, you would think you would want a Jordan Bird magic, a LeBron stuff like that to carry the torch. And right now, I’m sorry to say, I don’t see one carrying a torch that has American background. You even, like I said, right now, what we weby is doing, it’s almost like, like I say, it’s, it’s hit or miss when you’re watching.

It’s almost like I want to watch the Dodgers play just because of Tani. I want to watch the Spurs play because of Weby.

[00:47:34] Mike Klinzing: The best five guys in the league right now are all foreign guys. Right? And you. The Joker. You got Luca. You got Giannis. Oh yeah, the Joker. Forget about it. Yeah. You got, we, you got Weby and you got SGA.

And so those five guys, I think consensus wise are, are the five best players in the league and they’re all foreign born. And so yeah, it’s, it’s definitely an interesting spot for the NBA to be in, kinda like tennis, right back in the heyday of the John McEnroe, Jimmy Con, Jimmy Connors, Pete Samra, Agassi, all those guys.

And then American tennis has kind of fallen off the wheel falling off the wagon. There really hasn’t been a male American tennis star in a while. And I think it’s definitely affected the popularity, at least from a spectator standpoint of, of tennis for sure. Who’s your favorite NBA player or team to watch?

What, what teams do you like? If you get a chance to, if you get a chance to watch a game, who, who are you trying to watch? Who do you want to see?

[00:48:31] Raphael Esparza: Really funny. Everyone always asks me that I am the most calmest person when it comes to NFL viewing and stuff like that. because I only have one favorite team and it’s more mentally the Chicago Cubs because when I was growing up in the Midwest and Chicagoland area, WGN was one of the channels that we always got.

So I wasn’t the most healthiest kid and stuff like that. So I always watch Cubs baseball and probably Harry Carey is probably one of my favorite characters of all time and stuff like that. But I don’t have a favorite NBA team. I don’t have a favorite NFL team. So people are like, oh, I can’t believe my team lost Sunday.

I’m like, oh, I don’t have a team. So I felt really good all day Sunday. But I enjoy watching Weby play. I just think he’s a freak out there. I like teams play. I like team ball. Especially I think that’s why I like college basketball is probably my favorite sport. A to watch more than NBA, but I do like team basketball.

I love as, I love Oklahoma City. They’re so, such a deep team where they can beat you and still play eight, nine guys. And you don’t, you don’t even realize eight and nine guys hit the court. They could have seven guys hit double digits in, in a game and at the same time you’re reading the box for the next day.

Like, wow, they had seven guys. I watched that game. I can’t believe seven guys hit a, a double digit. So I like watching Team Ball. I love watching the Joker play. Just his assist. I love his passing game. I mean, here’s a guy that’s that tall and cheers up and down the court on a good pass more than his, on a three point shot that he made.

I always, I tell people, I Oh, watch the Joker when he does a no look pass, run up the court and then watch him hit a three pointer. It’s night and day. He’s more excited that he hit the no look pass than he did the, the three point shot. So I enjoy that aspect of the NBA, but I love team basketball. I think that’s why I love watching college.

[00:50:16] Mike Klinzing: I agree with you on the passing. I’ve told this story on the podcast, but before, but there was a game when I was sitting in the stands with my daughter and something happened out on the court player, threw a really nice pass. I’m like, wow, that was a great pass. I love that pass. And my daughter turned and looked at me.

She’s like, dad, it was the only thing you ever get excited about when you’re watching a basketball game as a great pass. And I’m like, yeah. I go, you’re right. because there are very few guys that understand how to pass or have that passing gene. And certainly Yoic is one of those guys that just takes pleasure, as you said, from throwing a great pass.

And I think that when you talk about team basketball, right, that’s what it’s all about. That this secret to basketball is not it, it’s not a secret. It it’s play together and compete and share the ball and don’t really care who ends up scoring the basket. And the teams that are the most successful, yeah, they have guys who are their leading score.

They have guys who they want to get the ball to in the most important moments, but ultimately those are teams that. They share the ball and they understand that every guy has a role. And if you play a role and the five guys work together, that’s how you’re going to have success. And it’s amazing to me at all levels of basketball.

You can start out in third grade basketball and you can go all the way up to the NBA that there’s guys who go through that entire process and they’re in the NBA and they still don’t understand that secret, that playing team basketball is ultimately what helps you to win. And I know that there’s obviously some benefit in the NBA of being a guy that puts up statistics and scores and that equates to the amount of money that you can make on your next contract.

But if it just comes down to winning, it’s amazing to me the number of guys that don’t understand what winning is all about. And there’s different ways to put together a team of basketball players. There’s different way to play team and there’s different ways to play team basketball. Different types of offenses and styles that you can play, but ultimately it comes down to am I willing to sacrifice and share the ball with my teammates?

And if I am, then no matter what system we’re running, our team’s probably going to have success. And it’s amazing to me how many people don’t understand that, Raphael?

[00:52:26] Raphael Esparza: No. That, I think that’s why KC is going to be a force for for many years. I mean, they’re undefeated right now. Their, their depth is unbelievable.

Their payroll is not too bad. I mean, they signed these guys pretty much all the same year, so they’re going to be stuck around a four round and they share the ball. I mean, they, there’s not one team that’s, that doesn’t share the ball more than, than then they do. So they’re going to be tough out in the west.

And I think they’re going to be beaten when these bad contracts go up, like LeBron’s contract. I think Lakers would be okay once he retires, because they’ll have so much free money up there. Same thing with Kevin Garett when he leaves Houston so much free money. Golden State free money. because these guys, I’m not saying Steph Curry, he’s, he’s played for one team, so he deserved all that.

I respect guys who play for one team, but I mean, if I’m not bashing La LeBron on this one, but if he really wanted to build a championship, he, he should have been taking Tom Brady money or Patrick Mahomes money to build a team around him if he really wanted another ring. I mean, look how many times Tom Brady did it.

Look how many times Patrick Mahomes did it. And then look at the six, the six success they had. So LeBron really wanted another ring for him and his son. And you know what, I’ll take one year five mil and then the rest of the money they can build a better bench or maybe get another score or a rim stop or, or something like that.

So I think what people forget about that, that hey, those two guys who have a lot of rings, Tom Brady has a lot of rings. I think Pet Holmes probably going to have a lot of them. They’re sacrificing money that they really don’t need because they’re getting money in endorsements and other things else. They’re sacrificing team money to build a better team.

[00:54:05] Mike Klinzing: Yeah, it’ll be interesting to see what LeBron does at the end of this season when this contract is up and he’s an unrestricted free agent for the first time. It’ll be interesting to see if you think he’s going to retire.

[00:54:17] Raphael Esparza: Yeah, he’s got old, he’s got old people injuries now. I mean, when you’re a sciatica and backstage, that’s, that’s when Mother Nature’s telling you, you know what?

Play golf, do some swimming. There’s a new sport called pickleball. Do that, I would be totally blown away if he plays another year.

[00:54:36] Mike Klinzing: It’s funny that you say Mother Nature, because that’s been our running joke on our podcast for probably since the seven years that we’ve been doing this. So we, we started it back in, during the 2018 NBA finals, and we’ve been saying year after year after year.

Nobody, nobody beats father time. And we’re like, well, looks like LeBron’s beating father time again this year. Father, time is, is chasing, is chasing him. Chasing and hasn’t caught him yet. It got him this year. Looks like finally, looks like finally father time is father. Time is on his way to finally overtaking LeBron in, in that race, which we all knew was going to come at some point.

But what he’s been able to do, obviously just incredible to be able to remain as healthy and is at a higher level as he’s been able to since  for, for the duration of his career. Just kind of incredible.

[00:55:25] Raphael Esparza: I agree.

[00:55:27] Mike Klinzing: Alright. Let me ask you about college basketball, and you’ve said that you’re a big college basketball fan and one of the things that growing up in my life, I always feel like I was a huge college basketball fan.

And over time here as NIL has crept in over the last couple years and the transfer portal. One of the things that’s frustrating as a college basketball fan is the fact that every single year it’s a different team, right? If I’m a North Carolina fan, the 15 guys that they have on the roster this year, maybe you’re going to get 5, 6, 7 of those guys back.

Maybe if you’re lucky, you’re going to keep half your roster for sure. You’re going to turn over the other half. And so you never really get to know those players and those teams the way you did, say, back in the eighties when I was a kid and was watching North Carolina, or I was watching Georgetown, or you’re watching Duke, or you’re watching Kentucky, and those teams kind of, you would see those players grow together and you get to know them over time.

And now it’s like every team is new. And the coaches who we have on the podcast as guests, they’re still trying to figure out that landscape of what’s it look like every year to build a team and build a culture and. Build the kind of basketball that you talked about, right? That you like watching team basketball every year when it’s a new team that’s difficult to do.

So how has that impacted your college basketball fandom and sort of the way you approach the game as just somebody who enjoys college basketball

[00:56:58] Raphael Esparza: takes a while to get used to it? because then most of these teams are starting to need to gel a little bit. Perfect example LA Tech last night against Nevada bringing home up pretty much three new starters into their team and they score 14 points in the second half of like five minutes left to go.

because they’re not jelling every bad turnovers passing was a horrendous. So it takes a while for them to gel. I mean, of course you’re going to have teams that that still recruit well and pick up maybe one or two people from a transfer portal. But some of these smaller schools, like do they bring a whole brand new starting five in into the midst.

So it’s really hard to enjoy it. That’s why I’m kind of glad, like, oh yeah, it started Monday. Shoot, we just had game seven in the World Series. We have NBA and NHL and college football. So yes, I’m still watching college basketball, but it’s not like watching college basketball January 1st or December, or watching a great Alaska shootout on Christmas Day.

That that’s one of the ESPN two games at 11 o’clock at night. And everyone else is sleeping, but you have to watch the great Alaska Shootout and stuff like that. That’s totally different. But right now it’s, you’re seeing a lot of sloppy ball because of new faces and new teams. They’re still trying to gel with each other.

So I’m glad that they start now. because yeah, I’m watching it. I watched the Duke game yesterday. Love the story of Boozer getting yelled at in the locker room, and he kind of came out like a totally different person in, in the second half. I loved those type of stories. I watched the game, but I felt like I had all my TVs on, on college basketball because again, it’s November 5th, I had hockey NBAI had.

Mac action and college football. But it takes a little bit of a while to just to learn some of these teams. And I, that’s why, one thing about college sports, I hate college signing days. Now it’s, I don’t care what hat you put on, you should put five hats on because you’re going to wear five hats before you leave.

College education. I’m, I’m tired of all. My, my brother’s oldest one who’s a, a volleyball player. He was going to McKenzie State in the Midwest, a top volleyball school for college. He was rere recruited by Stanford and San Diego and BYU. But I told my brother, I’m like, no, I’m not going to buy a polo or a heck because he’s probably going to transfer out if he has a killer sophomore year or two, stuff like that.

No, I’m not going to buy a polo. I’ll buy a polo or his shirt his senior year with school he’s going to, and not a freshman. But I think that’s it. You still, you just have to get used to this, the sign of time with the transfer portal. I think like in football, I think it crushes the SEC because now when you watch college games, you, you say, oh, so and so just made that tackle a former Alabama player, a former Georgia player, because these kids can transfer.

Oh, I didn’t get to play any time they promised me or I didn’t like the head coach, or I didn’t, there was, the city was boring. I’m transferring out. So I think it hurts. The bigger schools, like I think in college basketball, I think it hurts the big the big East and the big tent a little bit because some of these teams say, okay, I’m going to Indiana.

I might have to sit, I may be the sixth man coming off my freshman, but all of a sudden, wow, now I’m the seventh man. because some guy outplayed me in practice, I’m transferring out. I’m like, I don’t care. I’m going to be a starter next year. I didn’t like the way I was treated this year. So I think it helps, it helps the smaller schools and getting better players to put a little more majority on, okay, this team’s not going to dominate.

And I think it crushes the SEC and college football and we’re seeing it just the way the SEC has played. I mean, big 10 can win back to back to back national championships in college football.

[01:00:26] Mike Klinzing: It’s interesting when I think about this, especially on the college basketball side of it and talking to coaches, it feels like you have a roster, right?

And let’s say you have 12 guys on your roster and. If you’re a mid-major college basketball program, normally those programs thrive on finding a diamond in the rough guy, right? That and they end up developing, or maybe the guy was under the radar, could have gone and played at a higher level, but ends up coming into a mid-major, gets there likes it stays four years grows up.

You have these more experienced teams at the mid-major level that enable them to compete with some of the bigger schools that maybe are built around some of the younger players, freshmen and sophomores. But now if you’re a mid-major, right? And you recruit that sort of under the radar kid and he has a really good freshman year, even if he has a really good sophomore year, most of those kids at the top end of the roster who are the leading scores at those schools are going to end up probably transferring up.

And then at the same point, you have guys at the back end of the roster. Who are disgruntled, right? They’re like, ah like I should be playing. And mom and dad’s in their ear, their AAU coaches in their ear saying, Hey, you should be going to somewhere else so you can play. So then those guys at the back end of the roster that as you described, are unhappy, those guys leave.

And so you’re kind of left with the sort of your maybe fourth and fifth starter, and maybe you’re sixth and seventh man, and those are the guys you end up returning. And then you’re kind of turning over the, the front end of the roster and the back end of the roster. And it’s just, it’s super interesting in that respect of trying to figure out, if you’re a coach, how do I build that continuity and how do I try to put it together?

And I think coaches are just getting to the point now where they’ve accepted the fact that continuity in college basketball or college sports as we know it is kind of out the door and it’s every year you have to build a new team. And I just don’t know how, again, how does that impact the popularity of the sport with.

The general public. I still think college basketball is incredibly popular and obviously the tournament from a betting standpoint, I’m sure you can speak to just how popular betting on the NCAA tournament is both legally and through office pools and everything else. It’s always been around, but it’s just, it’s such a different world with college basketball because of that roster turnover.

Especially again, I think at any program you just, guys that are unhappy are going to go somewhere else and guys that do really well are going to think, Hey, I can go to the next biggest level of school and have success there. So I’m, if I’m at a lower level SEC school, right, I think, Hey man, I was a great player at Ole Miss.

Maybe I could transfer and not be a starter at Kentucky because I proved myself at Ole Miss. It just, the roster turnover is really incredible and I just, again, for you guys trying to figure out what  especially early in the season before the teams trying to figure out the odds, I’m sure is a challenge.

[01:03:20] Raphael Esparza: Yeah, I could, it wouldn’t shock me in five years that I think they’re going to have a limit of how many times you could transfer out. Especially if you have working at NIL money. I think if you have N money and you transfer out, you should have to give some of that money back. I mean, you didn’t say if you got X, Y, and Z and you’re expecting you to be there for at least two years and you leave up the year, I think you should have to give some of that NIL money back.

But it wouldn’t shock me in, in, in five years. We’ll see you only have two max transfer portal or you can put your name twice or, or whatever. because it is getting ridiculous right now. And a lot of kids are getting misinformation. You said that their a a u coach, they’re getting bad advice from their, from their parents and stuff like that.

I think it’s damaging more kids than it’s actually helping more kids.

[01:04:04] Mike Klinzing: There’s a lot of kids that go into the transfer portal and they never come out. Right. They never get signed. They go in there and they think they’re going to transfer and, and nobody ends up recruiting them and then they. They’re just kind of floating out there and their, their college basketball career is, is over, and that’s what you’d want to avoid.

And I do think that there, the mechanism for being able to pay college athletes and for college athletes to be able to transfer, I think the idea of that in theory is a good one. I do think that the players deserve to be paid in some way, and I do think that the ability to transfer should be there, especially when you go back to sort of the d draconian ways.

It was before where guys couldn’t, players, players would’ve to sit out a year if they were going to transfer. Meanwhile, the coach that they signed up to play for leaves, as soon as they signed their letter of intent and goes and gets a huge payday or gets a big buyout or whatever, it just felt like the odds were stacked against the athletes.

But I do think it’s kind of become the wild west and nobody really could anticipate that this was the way that it was going to go. I just know that from talking to people, that the NCAA feels that at this point, trying to enforce almost any rule. What’s going to happen is they’re going to get taken to court and they’re going to, they’re going to lose.

And so it puts the NCAA in a pretty difficult position.

[01:05:20] Raphael Esparza: I agree. Hopefully it does change.

[01:05:24] Mike Klinzing: Yeah. We, we shall, we shall see when that when that, when all is said and done I’m not sure it’ll be interesting. Tell me a little bit about the, just your thoughts on the, on the NCAA tournament and trying to go through it and pick winners in the NCAA tournament.

What, what’s that? What, what advice do you have for somebody just that they’re, if they want to throw, throw their office pool together, what’s, what’s some advice that you could give somebody for, for their office pool in, in March Madness?

[01:05:49] Raphael Esparza: Well, the last couple years has been chalk, chalk, chalk. So normally I say sprinkle some dogs, but the last couple years has been chalk eating.

So for me it’s the greatest time of the year. The year in sports. I love March Mass, my favorite tournament because anybody in has a shot on everybody because college basketball, you could be high at three point land and you can be gone in a three point land in football, you can’t NBA, you really can’t.

College basketball, you, you, we’ve seen Connecticut who came in at, on the bubble and to win it all because they got hot at the right time. They won the Big East Tournament, it got hot at the right time, and they’re cutting down the nets. So when you’re feeling it’s, it’s, people don’t understand. I have never filled out a bracket.

I probably haven’t filled out a bracket in like 30 years because for me, when I’m looking at games, I’m looking at the bracket, okay, if this team beats this team, what’s the points score going to be on Saturday’s game if they’re playing Thursday? So I’m always, my head’s always looking ahead so I’m not, ooh, I think Jamma and stuff like that.

So it’s really hard for me. That’s why I’ve never played a fantasy sport because I’m always, my mind is always looking. On a number point of view, not by not by, oh I need this guy to have three rushing yards to get six points. Or I’m like, ah, I, that’s not up for me. But I think for brackets and all that, always look for hot teams coming in.

Teams that weren’t highly ranked in their conference tournament but maybe won their conference or even lost in a championship game in a conference tournament. They could win two easy games opening up on a Thursday or the playin game and stuff like that. I always tell them, look at the conference tournament.

because yes, I know the big guys don’t really care about winning the conference tournament, but some of these teams want to go into the NCA tournament on a hot hand. Okay, alright, now, okay, we’re only going to go eight deep coming in as tournament eight deep. What worked really well for the conference tournament, that’s what we’re going to do.

So you see a lot of momentum coming in if you had a really, really good conference tournament. I think that’s why we’ve seen a lot of Mountain West teams. Coming in to the to the, to the bracket because they got hot late did really well in the conference tournament. Maybe didn’t win because they couldn’t beat San Diego State or something like that.

But they played really well and now they have great momentum coming in to the tournament. So I always tell people, look at conference tournaments when you’re filling out your bracket.

[01:08:04] Mike Klinzing: That’s good advice. I think it’s, again, when you have a team that is, is playing well at the end of the season, right?

You, your overall record can be deceiving depending upon which direction your team is trending. If they’re trending up, are they hot? And that may be a team to ride. And if they’re. A team that’s maybe started out hot and goes in the other direction. I think the NBA’s like that too. There’s a lot of teams sometimes you get the team that comes out of the gate really fast.

Yeah. And they have a good record at the beginning of the season and then they go 500 for the second half of the year and party says, well man, they just took the foot off the, they took the foot off the gas and they could turn it back on in the playoffs. But I think generally speaking, the trend that you’re on as you’re approaching the playoffs in the NBA or the NCAA tournament as a college basketball team, I think those are trends that I would tend to believe in.

Just knowing what the dynamics of a team are. Right. When, when you’re winning and things are going well and everybody’s feeling good, everybody’s smiling, things are, things are positive. And if, if things haven’t been positive for a while, if you’re only kind of skating along at 500, nobody’s nearly as happy as they were when you were, when you were winning a lot of games.

Right? Yeah.

[01:09:11] Raphael Esparza: I just won Gonzaga to cut the nets once. That’s all I wanted. I used before. I’ve seen my Cubs win a World series. I’ve seen a whole bunch of stuff that I didn’t think I was going to see before I did. I just want to see Gonzaga win at once. I mean, they’ve been, they’ve been either a thorn in my back when I worked in Vegas casinos, or they, or they’ve been oh.

They, this is their year and they don’t win it. So I just want to see the bulldogs cut down nets once.

[01:09:36] Mike Klinzing: Totally, totally understandable. Totally understandable. I have to tell you, so I’m a Cleveland Indians fan, and so the Cubs, I was, I was happy for the Cubs. Oh, I’m so sorry. No, it’s all good. Listen, I was happy for the Cubs in a sense of clearly the, the long time, the suffering of a Chicago Cubs fan.

But I had an opportunity to go to that game seven of the World Series, and so I’ll, I’ll tell you the quick story. So I have a friend who. He runs a company called Pro Camps that does camps for pro athletes in all different sports. And he was a college teammate of mine. And I was sitting at the at the dinner table with my wife and my kids at like, maybe six o’clock that night of game seven.

And my kids had like some posters set up and we were all going to sit on the couch and watch game seven. And my friend calls me at like six o’clock. He’s like, Hey man. He goes, I got one ticket for the game tonight. And I said to him, that’s awesome man. I’m so glad you’re getting to go, man. It’s going to be, it’s going to be incredible to to be down there and Indians, Cubs, one of these teams is going to break the drought and whatever.

He is like, no man for you. And I’m like. I’m looking around at my kids, I’m like they’re, they’ve been so excited to sit and watch the game. Watch the game with me. I’m like, can I really just ditch them and go to the game? So I’m like, ah I’m like, I I don’t think I don’t think I can go.

I think I just going to stay stay here with the kids. And I hung up and they’re like, who was that? And I’m like, oh, that was Greg. He said he had one ticket for me. And they’re like, dad, dad, dad, you have to go. So literally it’s like an hour before the game and the family loaded me up in the car. Drove me down to the stadiums, dropped me off, and then I had to get to my friend to get the ticket.

So in the plaza, outside of what was then Jacob’s Field, they had it like security. You can get to the back of the, in the back of the ballpark, behind the bleachers. You can go back there and it’s just it’s just a fence. So normally you could just reach in and he could hand me the ticket and then I could go in.

But because that plaza was crazy filled with people, they had like a security wall that had pushed it back like 15 feet away from the fence. So I couldn’t get to my friend in order to physically grab the ticket. because it wasn’t it wasn’t an electronic ticket. He actually had a physical ticket that he had to hand me.

And so I had to go to like this security guard. No, he can’t go over there. This one? No, this one, no. I just kept working my way down the line until eventually I found a security guard that let me walk through like the security barrier to grab the ticket and go in. And then I have to tell you, it was the strangest game.

That I’ve ever been to because I would say the, the stadium was probably, if it wasn’t 50 50 Cubs fans and Indians fans, it was very close. Oh yeah. So no matter what ha, no matter what hap no matter what happened, somebody was going crazy. So the stadium was loud the entire time. And actually the the home run that the Cubs hit in the first inning Dexter, what was the guy’s name who hit the home run the first Dexter Fowler hit that for the first inning.

For the Cubs.

[01:12:40] Ryan Glenney: Mm-hmm.

[01:12:40] Mike Klinzing: Yes. F Fowler hit the home run. And so I’m outside of the stadium at this point. I didn’t realize that it was equal Indians, Cubs fans. So I’m like. The Indians supposed to just turned to double play or had some kind of like sensational play in the field, not realizing that all the cheers were for the Fowler home run in the first inning.

because there were all those Cubs fans in the, in the stadium. It was just, it was so loud for both teams. It’s the loudest stadium I’ve ever been to, and at any one point, only half the people were making the noise. It was just, it was an incredible experience. Obviously I was disappointed that the Indians didn’t win, but man, just to be in the building for that game was, I mean, it was incredible.

It, I’m sure it was like what it was for anybody who was a Dodgers or Toronto fan to just being on the edge of your seat for that, for that game. It was, it was incredible.

[01:13:30] Raphael Esparza: I was supposed to go to the game, a good friend of mine that’s works for NBC in Cleveland, Nick Aminos, the sports anchor. I was going to go to the game with him.

I went to the ones in Wrigley series. I was going to go there, but I decided to fly to, I was supposed to fly to, I flew to Vegas and watched it with my folks. I watched but who are diehard Cub fans, so I surprised them. Watched it with them.

[01:13:51] Mike Klinzing: Nice. Very cool. I’m sure they were very, very excited to get Big Cleveland fan.

I’m,

[01:13:56] Raphael Esparza: I’m

[01:13:56] Mike Klinzing: a big Cleveland fan just because of that. The, the drought that, yeah, I think it’s just, again, it’s baseball is, baseball is a very fickle sport and you have to, you get hot, you get hot at the right time and I feel like it’s probably the least, it’s the least the best team doesn’t always win in baseball, whereas I feel like in football and basketball, most times when it comes down to it, the best team ends up winning baseball team gets hot pitching or their hitting goes or what, what goes south.

And all of a sudden they’re a team that’s been dominant for an entire regular season is out before you can shake a stick at. I would think baseball to me would always be the hardest sport to bet, especially in the playoffs because you just, I feel like you have no idea what you’re, what you’re even looking at half the

[01:14:39] Raphael Esparza: time.

Look at bullpens when it comes to playoff baseball. Who’s got a better bull pitch? Yeah.

Now.

[01:14:47] Mike Klinzing: Yeah. Nowadays especially right, because you’re just, you’re just rolling guys out of the bullpen over and over and over again. For sure. All right. College basketball, who’s your team you’re watching this year?

What team, what team do, what team do you like in college basketball?

[01:15:01] Raphael Esparza: That’s, I think, Flo, I think, I think the SE C’s going to be not as good as last year. I think Florida will be okay. I think Yukon’s going to be a tough out this year. I think Duke’s not going to be the same team we saw last year. But I think they’re still going to hang around.

But I think Yukon’s going to be, that, that I really think is going to be really, really good. I’m trying to think of another sleeper. Oh, oh, I’m sorry. BYUI mean, shoot, they were really good last year and they almost put up 80 plus points. because the way they shoot the ball, they got pretty much the whole team coming back and stuff like that.

Who would’ve thought BYU could maybe make college football playoffs and maybe, and the NCA tournaments, so, and they could be, it’s very tough. I was actually shocked at how well Arizona played. Game one. It’s I’m not going to put too much stock into game one, but I think there’s another team that’s that that’s a team that you, you’re not going to have a lot of transfer for people.

The people who may be different as they’re coming back from their retreat or whatever they call it and stuff like that. And they’re much older. Always an older team. They’re not doing that much youth on there because they have the way they do their programs up there. But I would say those team, you kind and BYU going to be a fun team just to watch all season.

[01:16:11] Mike Klinzing: Yeah. This year, BY u’s got Agent Bansta who’s going to be probably one of the top three picks in the NBA draft with along with Boozers Kid and then the kid, Darren Peterson. Darren Peterson out of Kansas. I think those are kind of the consensus. Three guys, although I just saw Caleb Wilson for North Carolina, who’s a high school kid out of Georgia, he had four dunks in the first four minutes before the first TV time out of his debut against Central Arkansas.

He has. A kid has bounce. I mean, he just elevates off the floor super quick. I’m going to be, I’m going to be anxious to watch him for the rest of the season, see how, see how it develops. He, he is just an unbelievable, unbelievable athlete and a really good passer. I’ll be curious to see kind of how his, his outside game develops, ability to handle the ball and shoot it.

But man, he was, he was fun to watch. I think he had seven dunks in that game. It was just it was just a dunk. It was a dunk fest for him. He was all over, all over that. Just a, just attack in the rim. So. Alright, Raphael, before we get out, I want to give you a chance to share for people how they can reach out to you, find out more about what you’re doing, share your Twitter x handle, share website, anything else you want to get out there.

And after you do that, I’ll jump back in and wrap things up.

[01:17:21] Raphael Esparza: Yeah, you can find me on most social media outlets. You can find me on X @VSIdocsports. You can find me on Instagram, Raphael Esparza TikTok at Raphael Esparza and Instagram. Esparza. You can also find me five days a week on Amazon Prime, Netflix, YouTubetv, ku coaching company.

I do a sports show with Jonathan Coachman, former Sports Center Anchor, and wwe. I do his sports show Monday through Friday, 10:00 AM Eastern Standard Time. I’m the numbers guy, so I usually talk a lot of betting numbers and ins and outs of what you, what you can do and what you can’t do. Stuff like that.

And anytime people have any kind of questions and any kind of sports or gambling age, you always find me on social media. I love talking stop. I love helping people understand what I do, understand the game, the gambling lion understand what if it’s going to move, if it’s not going to move. I love talking stuff on social media, so I’ll definitely look me up on all those socials.

[01:18:16] Mike Klinzing: Ael cannot thank you enough for taking the time out of your schedule the night to join us. Really appreciate it. And to everyone out there, thanks for listening and we will catch you on our next episode. Thanks. All right, Raphael. Good work, man.

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[01:19:21] Narrator: Thanks for listening to the Hoop Heads Podcast presented by Head Start Basketball.