With its relentless end to end action, deluge of points, and superstar big names, it is no wonder that Basketball – and the NBA in particular – has so many fans all around the world. And not only is Basketball one of the world’s greatest spectator sports, it also ranks amongst the biggest hitters in terms of betting turnover, with legions of punters eager to enhance the entertainment with a wager or two.
But what kind of things should basketball bettors have in mind when seeking out those profitable angles?
The Power of the Parlay
When assessing the latest list of games, there are almost always certain sides that stand out as obvious winners. The money line for the Miami Heat over the New York Knicks for example might be around -300. For many bettors, a wager on the Heat may not make much appeal due to the low returns e.g., a $100 wager would return a total profit of just $33.
Enter the Parlay bet. Rather than placing a single bet on the Heat, we can increase our returns by combining the Heat with other favoured sides. For example, a $100 parlay on the Heat (-300) to beat the Knicks, the Celtics (-300) to beat the Wizards and the Suns (-300) to beat the Kings would return a total of $237.04, for a profit of a much more appealing $137.04.
Parlay bets can also serve to enhance the bettor’s edge. In our Heat, Celtics, and Suns example, we may have determined that the odds on each team are 10% better than they ought to be. A single bet on any of the three sides would therefore represent a 10% edge. However, by multiplying the 10% edges together, we create a parlay bet with a total edge of 33.1% (1.10 x 1.10 x 1.10 = 1.331). That’s a pretty significant enhancement and – providing we are judging the odds accurately – can make a big difference to the bottom line.
Bearing the above in mind, it is no surprise that parlay betting via mobile apps has become extremely popular. With the chance to win big for a small outlay, it’s easy to see why.
Against the Crowd
Staple advice in the world of financial trading, the adage of “going against the crowd” or “swimming against the tide” also applies to Basketball Betting.
Time after time the public will seem to get fully behind a particular team, sending the odds tumbling. In such instances – unless you have a very good reason – you should look to bet in the opposite direction to the public. There are many reasons that oddsmakers register such consistent profits over time. Regularly being on the wrong end of wholesale public gambles is not one of them.
Sure, there will be times when the public do get it right, but more often than not these large gambles will be fuelled by media hype surrounding popular teams and players, rather than cold hard stats and facts. Always look to be on the side of the stats as opposed to the hype.
The Key Stats
One of the most attractive aspects of Basketball betting is the sheer volume of statistical data readily available. When attempting to forecast the likely result of a Basketball game, there are however two metrics which stand out from the crowd: Points in the Paint, and Turnovers.
Three pointers may make the highlights reel, but it is a consistent ability to bag the two pointers which will have the biggest impact on a sides result. Three-point conversion tends to vary widely from game to game. Two-point conversion in contrast is far more stable and a significantly better predictive tool.
In Basketball, possessions and points are directly and positively related. Remember that an ability to turn the ball over has the potential of creating a swing of up to 6 points. Always looks to support the sides with the stronger turnover stats.
Five Quickfire Hints
In a sport so statistically rich and points heavy as Basketball, the list of potential strategies is almost endless. However as with most forms of betting, a common-sense approach will regularly reap rewards.
- Bet Early: If you have spotted an error in the market or odds, be assured that eventually others will too.
- The public will tend to overvalue the favourites and the overs market. A strategy built around underdogs and “under” is therefore a solid place to begin.
- Be aware of injuries and rested players. Latching onto injuries early and anticipating load management can hand the bettor an edge.
- Support road favourites after a loss of 15 or more points in game 1. The humiliation of a blowout seems to focus the mind, with such sides historically outperforming the spread 60% of the time in game 2.
- Support the home side when +10 or greater. Two factors are at play here. Firstly, the home side not wanting to be embarrassed in front of their own fans; and secondly the away side being less motivated to put on a show.